SOME OBSERVATIONS ON HOWARD DEAN By Scott E

Some Observations on Howard Dean
By Scott E. Green

First let me say that I am not a Dean enthusiast and really have no use for the man . Finally it seems that his foot is finding its way to his mouth, like recently borrowing a phrase from a soon-to-be-aired television show and claiming it as his own product -- but this is tiny tempests that fades out very quickly. However, Dean does have some major strategic and tactical problems. Here are four:

1. He was unable to hand his governorship to a fellow Democrat. It could be spinned by his opponents that he cannot build an organization that helps other Democrat candidates and does not have the will or the vision to do so.

2. He is a centrist – even a conservative Democrat – who has attracted the Democratic left by his stand on the Iraq war, plus his additional comments on US-Israeli relations. Up until now the two leftist candidates (Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich) have not directed their rhetoric against Dean beyond claiming he does not really deserve the Democrat Left's support. However, Ohio's ‘Dennis the Menace’ is finally beginning to step up his criticism of the former Vermont governor, and if he increases the tempo, Dean might start bleeding leftist support. Support of Kucinich can only come at the expense of Howard Dean.

3. His geographical base of support is Southeast NH – liberal Fernald country. Past primary elections prove it alone is not a great source of votes. As an aside, to me it is odd that Mark Fernald, last year’s defeated liberal Democratic gubernatorial nominee, has not endorsed Dean. This would consolidate Dean's base in the area. However, Fernald is still a red flag to many Democrats, due to his lopsided defeat by Gov. Craig Benson, and having Fernald on board would probably not be an asset in the long run. In order to get the maximum out of the region, therefore, Dean must invest considerable resources into pumping up independent voters. If Gen. Wesley Clark enters the race, that might be a problem since in N. H. Clark would be appealing to independent voters.

4. No matter how strongly Dean wins in N. H. the press is going to minimize it because he is from a neighboring state. He needs an overwhelming victory (at least 40%) or the press is going to chew for weeks on how poorly Dean did in N. H.

Scott E Green is a Manchester, N.H. based freelance writer and former state representative. He is a published poet, science fiction writer and Democrat activist.

Posted Sunday, September 14, 2003

Return to NH Commentary Home Page