Lynch for Governor? Why Not

Edward C. Mosca

CONCORD, NH -- State elections are little more than a year away. And with incumbent Governor John Lynch’s approval ratings reaching the stratosphere, the smart money is that unless things change drastically none of the Republican Party’s big-guns will run for Governor.

Republicans faced a similar dilemma in 1998 when then big-gun Gordon Humphrey declined to run against Jeanne Shaheen. Republicans ended up running Jay Lucas, who received a paltry 31 percent of the vote to Shaheen’s 66 percent. And with Lucas such a weak candidate, Shaheen was able to ignore him and help Democrats take control of the state senate.

This recent history leaves rank-and-file Republicans understandably nervous about the potential size of Lynch’s coattails in 2006. To make matters worse, at this point it looks like 2006 will be a particularly inauspicious year for Republicans. Mid-presidential-term elections are not historically kind to the party that holds the White House. And President Bush hasn’t helped matters by declaring war on conservatives over his nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court. And there are the troubles of Delay, Libby and Rove to worry about as well.

Of course, the political landscape can shift quickly and seismically, which means we may yet see a real contender decide to challenge Lynch. Recall that President Bush 41 appeared unbeatable after the first Gulf War. Governor Lynch, however, has proven himself far more politically adroit than the current President’s father. And New Hampshire has tended to give incumbent governors a second term. So, for now at least, it looks like the state GOP may need to dust off Jay Lucas for another run for Governor.

Assuming Mr. Lucas isn’t interested in a reprise of his role as sacrificial lamb, here are the minimum qualifications for his successor: First, the candidate must be opposed to an income tax because that is the defining issue for Republicans. Second, because defending phone-gate apparently hasn’t been cheap – the GOP only had about $500.00 in the bank at the beginning of September – the candidate must be able and willing to self-finance his campaign.

So who do we know who is both opposed to an income tax and loaded? Well, how about John Lynch? Don’t laugh; I’m not kidding. The man really is a mainstream Republican. By New Hampshire standards that is.

Consider public education. Both Lynch and a majority of Republicans believe that the state should distribute about $850 million dollars in education spending between the state’s cities and towns based upon a formula that is inscrutable to the public. The only disagreement is over whose inscrutable formula is superior. And both Lynch and a majority of Republicans believe that a committee of unelected political insiders based in Concord should set education standards for the entire state.

Lynch is also a mainstream Republican on healthcare. Seven of sixteen Republican state senators, including Senate President Ted Gatsas, voted for SB 125, which forbids insurance companies from considering an individual’s health when setting premiums. In the House, a whopping 144 Republicans, which is nearly 60 percent, supported SB 125. These included Majority Leader Michael O’Neil and Whip Pamela Price. Thus, a majority of Republicans agree with Lynch that the cost of health insurance should be determined by government regulation, not the free market.

Even on the so-called values issues Lynch is pretty mainstream Republican. Although he sided with Planned Parenthood on the parental notification law on appeal to the United States Supreme Court, so did a number of prominent Republicans. Among them Cynthia Dokmo, the Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. And don’t forget that Speaker Scamman also may be on Lynch’s side of the issue. That is if he ever finds the time to read Planned Parenthood’s brief.

So why not Lynch as the Republican candidate for Governor in 2006? Choice of party shouldn’t matter as much as what the candidate stands for, and the man undeniably is a mainstream New Hampshire Republican. Why go through the charade of pretending that the state GOP has meaningful policy differences with Lynch, when it doesn’t?

The truth about the New Hampshire Republican Party is that, as presently constituted, it is not very Republican at all. This may represent the state’s electorate. But given the recent enthusiastic responses to tax-cap petitions in Laconia and Manchester, it appears that there are places in New Hampshire where principles like limited government, low taxes and free markets still resonate. With a few notable exceptions, however, the state GOP is not one of those places.

Mr. Mosca is an attorney practicing in Manchester. To comment on this, and to read other pieces about current affairs in New Hampshire and the world, check out www.johnstarkreview.com .

Posted October 24, 2005

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